
The so called economic recovery in the USA is not happening and will not happen for a very long time. Here is simple example of why not and it is about job losses and job gains for the future. It is bleak but makes a lot of sense. It is a quote from "The Daily Reckoning".
Yesterday, we were calculating how long it would take to get the jobless number back down to '90s levels...that is, around 5%. There are now about 131 million jobs in the United States...and about 15 million people who would like a job but can't find one. Meanwhile, population growth adds about 1.5 million new workers every year. That means the economy has to grow at 1% (in real terms) just to stay even with population growth. Currently, the economy is going in the wrong direction - backwards. It's losing jobs...maybe 3 million this year...and maybe another 2 million or so before it finally stabilizes (who knows?)...for a total of 20 million jobs down (about 13% unemployment) by the time unemployment bottoms out. Let's suppose, by some miracle, the economy turns around...and begins growing at 3% per year. That should be about 3 million new jobs per year. Half of those, remember, are just to keep up with population growth. So the other half - 1.5 million - gradually reduce unemployment. Now, let's get out the calculator...20 million divided by 1.5 million equals a little more than 13. By these numbers you can expect full employment again in 2022!
1 comment:
And I am not so sure that the baby boomers are actually going to leave the workforce they way that they have in the past however....then there are the pension $$$ issues... hope those chickens of our keep laying....
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