Saturday, September 20, 2008

Avoiding the Inevitable?


This has been a truly historical week and a major financial disaster has been avoided, but perhaps only temporarily. If any of you do not know what I am talking about, you have been under a rock, but I must tell you that it is not safe there either.
In 1929 when the economy was in crisis, the US government did not intervene and the result was the crash of '29 and the subsequent ushering in of the Great Depression and the 'dirty thirties'. Today, the powers that be have intervened and in a purely socialistic fashion, have nationalized some of the biggest US players in order to bail them out and avoid an international crisis of confidence. The alternative is too scary to contemplate.
The question now is, when will the massive (and I mean MASSIVE) debt that the government has incurred come home to roost. The mortgage defaults in the US are running at one in nine overall! The sub-prime mortgages have not yet all hit the fan. The next tier of mortgages, the ones where some money was put down and the borrower lied about income and promises of getting a job, is about to come up for renewal. It is predicted that 60% of these mortgages will also go into default.
So the interestingness is not going away any time soon. Hang onto your hats. It will be ride to remember.
Has the lesson been learned? We shall see. Oh, what is the lesson, you ask? An economy cannot be built on spending and credit. It is built on savings, wealth accumulation, and avoiding risky debt at all costs. That may mean living within one's means, which is vastly unpopular in today's society.






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