Thursday, October 8, 2009

Jobs

This photo is not the best quality but I just wanted to show the unique beauty of an Angel Trumpet tree in full bloom. As night falls, you cannot walk past this plant without being overwhelmed by the pleasant fragrance of the bloosoms. I am told the pink variety of this plant is not nearly as aromatic.

The so called economic recovery in the USA is not happening and will not happen for a very long time. Here is simple example of why not and it is about job losses and job gains for the future. It is bleak but makes a lot of sense. It is a quote from "The Daily Reckoning".

Yesterday, we were calculating how long it would take to get the jobless number back down to '90s levels...that is, around 5%. There are now about 131 million jobs in the United States...and about 15 million people who would like a job but can't find one. Meanwhile, population growth adds about 1.5 million new workers every year. That means the economy has to grow at 1% (in real terms) just to stay even with population growth. Currently, the economy is going in the wrong direction - backwards. It's losing jobs...maybe 3 million this year...and maybe another 2 million or so before it finally stabilizes (who knows?)...for a total of 20 million jobs down (about 13% unemployment) by the time unemployment bottoms out. Let's suppose, by some miracle, the economy turns around...and begins growing at 3% per year. That should be about 3 million new jobs per year. Half of those, remember, are just to keep up with population growth. So the other half - 1.5 million - gradually reduce unemployment. Now, let's get out the calculator...20 million divided by 1.5 million equals a little more than 13. By these numbers you can expect full employment again in 2022!

1 comment:

On This Rock said...

And I am not so sure that the baby boomers are actually going to leave the workforce they way that they have in the past however....then there are the pension $$$ issues... hope those chickens of our keep laying....