Tuesday, May 18, 2010

The Future of Oil

This is the Mission Bridge which spans the mighty Fraser River. Today it is a busy four lane link to the north shore of the river. Tomorrow, maybe a foot bridge, or a bicycle bridge at best. I say this because I believe that oil production in North America will soon reach a crisis point. The oil spill disaster in the Gulf is having far reaching consequences beyond the obvious, which of course is pollution.
Senators from California, Oregon and Washington state are introducing legislation that will prohibit (read "ban") oil exploration and drilling off their coasts. More states will be allowed to take control of what happens on their 'off shore' and neighbouring states will have the right to veto anything happening in those waters that might effect them adversely. This all comes at a time when the USA is becoming more and more dependent on foreign oil. We can see as a result of this that there will be more and larger transfer payments going to other countries in payment for oil and that will hurt the already suffering trade deficit of the USA. Mexico, Iran, Venezuela, and Peru could soon be taking themselves out of the oil export game as they are using oil revenues for social programs instead of investing in more exploration and oil infrastructure.
The use of fossil fuels will be winding down sooner than we think, however, alternatives are not being made available soon enough. This gulf oil spill is only speeding up the day when we will be in a real bind.
To quote Bill Bonner of the 'Daily Reckoning', "there is not much $74.00 a barrel oil left, but there will be an abundance of $200.00 a barrel oil."

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